Here Be Dragons

You don’t want to be the guy remembered for “discovering” something that he neither discovered, nor knew what it was. But I don’t think we should forget Colombus. As the patron saint of ignorance, he died thinking he had found a route to the Indies. It is important to be able to acknowledge what you don’t know. It is a big red flag if someone is incapable of saying that they don’t know. If they are incapable of letting others make decisions. In the past, explorers used to write HBD - “Here be Dragons” on maps in places they didn’t know. Mapping your ignorance is a powerful tool in career development. The world is too complicated for us to understand. We will remain ignorant in more areas than we are not. The big advantage is that we move as a pack. Being able to connect with others lets you find routes to new areas *for you*. Deep listening lets you understand (some of) what you don’t understand.

Dragons at the bottom of the 1265 Psalter World Map

 

Mapping Ignorance

It is important to map ignorance. Here be dragons. My impression is that we don’t have the necessary tools to unpack many of the complicated issues we are currently facing. There is far too much false confidence and debate going on. I have been part of “Men’s Groups” and “White Men’s Groups” trying to create containers for conversations to self-reflect. One common thread has been the over use of challenge. Like in the public debate, there seems to be limited ability to genuinely listen and gather information. Superficial curiosity is often strategic, still anchored to a particular pre-packaged conclusion the questioner is looking to confirm. It is like we are still engaged in the long history of Crusades and Civilising Missions. Having not learnt the lessons of the unintended consequences of true believers pushing into worlds they don’t understand. New tools are required. New rules of engagement. New honest map building.

Psalter World Map

Mapping Ignorance

When I think of ignorance, I think of Columbus. The celebrated slave trader died thinking he had discovered a route to the East. It is important to develop techniques to map your ignorance. Even if we realise the vast quantity of stuff that is impossible to know and understand, we still need to navigate our way through life. Like a vast black sky with spider webs spun across it, we shoot best guesses until we develop a net that can hold us. We don’t know all the options available to us. We don’t know the steps required. The best we can do is build the capacity to endure for a long enough time to create meaning. The resilience to adapt and adjust as things go, and don’t go, our way. Creativity doesn’t come in the knowing, but it does come from developing the resources to know. Then take a deep breath, and just keep moving.

What you don't know

Non-Contributory Zero

A Contrarian is not someone who is contrary. If you are contrary, then all the “wisdom” is held in the view of the opposite position. You are a non-contributory zero. A Contrarian must balance the existential crisis between seeming stubborn, and constantly seeking the most visceral feedback they can. The best Contrarians I have met spend a lot more time asking questions than dispensing information. What we have to contribute to the world is our unique perspective. An awareness that that perspective cuts you off from seeing other angles, seeks out the truth in what others are saying. It doesn’t simply seek to prove that other people are morons. The value of being Contrarian is making a contribution, not in simply tearing things down.

Illusory Superiority

Incentives matter. We do what we do for various reasons, but normally there is some sort of tangible reward on offer that we value. For this reason, I have always been a fan of the idea of meritocracy. That we should structurally reward excellence, because that will let resources flow to where they will be used best. I am losing my faith in meritocracy. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where we have illusory superiority. Where people with substantial, measurable, defects in their knowledge lack the expertise to recognise that deficit. On the flip-side, as people become aware of just how complicated things are, the confidence they project tends to understate their relative competence. Meritocracy incentivises us to fake it till we make it. It incentivises superficial looks at our areas of ignorance. It places ego front and centre. We aren’t solving joint problems. We are performing. As a fundamental investor, I am bigger believer that in the long term it is what you actually do that matters. That requires real honesty.

A and B are the same colour

Distorted View

Columbus was good at crossing oceans. He was less good at mapping his ignorance. He died still believing he had discovered a back route to China and India. The vast majority of us live hand-to-mouth. Some have very big hands but equally big mouths. In promoting the building of Capital, most of us who have a degree of Financial Security have never been faced with the same choices and decisions as those in Poverty. We are being a little like Columbus in promoting our back route. It is near impossible to see things from another perspective, because of how hard it is to release our perspective. I took an easy route. I got the highest paying job I could with my skills, and invested an aggressive portion of my income while constraining my expenses. I know very little about having not having support or excellent mentors and friends. First, I want to map my ignorance, then use the new tools we have to find people with the knowledge and skills I lack.

Mapping Ignorance

I Don't Know

I have no idea what is going on. I am an immigrant in Britain. I thought the majority of people in Britain believed in free movement of people and were welcoming. I actually still believe that, but there is an intense and obvious divide of people here. In a small country, people can still tell which city you come from, and what 'type' of person you are, by your accent, your name, and various other signals. There is a deep struggle between us and them. I grew up in Apartheid South Africa. Us v Them by definition. When I visited Chicago, I saw that Apartheid was alive and well. 22 years after 27 April 1994, Apartheid is still alive and well in South Africa, America and Britain.

Then Mandela, Now Trump

Elections don't change things. People change things. We can hold it together or we can let things fall apart. It is not up to politicians or businessmen. It is up to us. I have no idea what is going on, but I have a strong sense that we lack sufficient connection to each other, and empathy with each other. We need to change that. Let's start.

Then 2016 Happened

Cooperation v Ideology

Partisan politics presumes the division is permanent. The stated goal is to represent everyone. The reality is a school debate where your side is picked in advance, and then you argue for it. Someone wins, and someone loses. Government is more boring than elections. Long after the soundbites fade, there is hard, complicated, nuanced policy to wade through. Partisan politics forces you to start with the answer, then find a path to it. It starts with interest groups. There is no smooth path when you realise you disagree with your team. Without a team, you can't get anything done. Team building takes time. A system that focused on co-operation independent of ideology would make changing views easier. The engine of the enlightenment was admitting ignorance. Politics needs the same.

Elections are the start of the process. Not the end.

Ignorance Map

There was an entire 'unknown' continent in Columbus' way when he set off for the Indies. He started with the conclusion, and built an argument. A perfect example of confabulation. He even died believing that the West Indies were part of the known world of the Afro-Asian land mass. The Americas are named after Amerigo Vespucci, the first European to theorise that the Old World wasn't the entire world. In 'Sapiens', Harari points out that one of our biggest leap forwards in learning, wasn't our ability to map what we know, but to be able to map our areas of ignorance. Our ability to gain comfort with pointing out the gaps in our knowledge.

Columbus' world with the modern world superimposed

Sharing Something

I worked at three different companies and a school. Beyond my own education, these were the main communities I have been involved in. In the workplace, 'Culture' is one of the key things the executives sweat over. What is it that ties people together? What is it that they are working towards? Community at its heart is the sharing of something (beliefs, dreams, resources, risks, passion). The main vehicles I have seen doing this revolve around the world of work. 

The challenge is that our work filters broader society. We don't hire by lottery. We have elaborate interviews and resumes to whittle down the 'type of person' we need to admit. Ideally those people are already like-minded. They already share the goals of the community, and have some skills to add. Even if there are processes to reach out to other areas to 'upskill', the goal is that the people that are hired eventually have been morphed to fit the culture. This self-reinforcing process is unlikely to even recognise the strengths of those not already involved.

As work expands to fill up the time allocated to it, there isn't that much space to give energy to the task of community building beyond the companies we are involved in. Our biology completely limits our ability to have perspective. Our world is not the world. It is the world we see, hear, smell, taste and experience. The civil war in Sudan does not exist for most of the world's population. Thankfully, even Donald Trump doesn't exist for most of the world's population.

About 2 million people died in the 22 year '2nd Sudanese Civil War'

South Sudan tops the 2015 Fragile States Index

Fragile States

I am not arguing that we shouldn't have areas of focus. I am not arguing that we shouldn't ignore some things. I do think we should try better understand the obstacles that get put in place. We should try understand the paths between our areas of concern. Most importantly, we should understand the path to those who are being left out. The path to their passion that we are losing.

The idea of the 'Veil of Ignorance' is that if we didn't know which character we were going to be, we would still be happy to play the game.

Black Sheep v Swart Donkey

My brothers are both Doctors. When my Dad introduces us, he says, 'This is Dr Black, this is Dr Black, and that's... Trevor.' It's okay because I have lots of family members who are psychologists, so I have learnt to cope. The bit of that about Doctors and Psychologists is a true story. It's true that the bit about how my Dad introduces me is a story.

Often when we make big life choices, people who care about us will have a view on what we have done. It may be annoying at times, but it shows they care. I have been asked what my family thought about my choice to stop working for money. To give up my professional memberships. Was I considered the Black Sheep of the Black family? The truth is that what I am doing now is very consistent with how my family have always known me. On top of that, I am actually a very risk averse person. Stopping work isn't a risk in my eyes considering the various buffers I have built. Worst case scenario of getting another job isn't exactly a risk. My family and friends know that I will be okay. The only raised eyebrows I get are with respect to my lack of shaving, length of hair and type of humour.

Black Sheep v Swart Donkey

I may not be the Black Sheep, but I am the Swart Donkey. The people who know me best know I have have struggled with stubbornness and noisiness over the years. I have strong opinions. Most of them have been shown to be wrong. Donkeys are stubborn, ignorant and noisy and so it seems very appropriate. I also try very hard to slowly chip away at those issues. A little less ignorant. A little better at listening. A little bit changed. Each day.

I am not going anywhere quickly... but I will keep moving without giving up. 

Bundles of Ignorance

We know there is too much going on around the world to wrap our heads around. Many people I know have chosen to stop listening to the news because it just gets them down. Instead they focus on those they care about, get on with something useful and try be helpful. Challenging our views is also tiring. It is one thing to be able to think about what we do. It is another thing to think about how we think about what we do. But we also need to do. At some point most of us accept whatever bundles of ignorance happens to be ours and get on with it.

The world is changing rapidly. We really live in a vastly different place from the one where our cultures were marinated. It wasn't long ago at all when the world was mostly rural, borderless, and everyone around us was quite similar. Now more than half the world's population live in cities. Our bundles of ignorance have to change.

Urbanisation

I am a big fan of free speech and social media as a way of airing our ignorance. I don't think anger is that useful in responding to things we disagree with. People don't seem to change their mind when they are on the defensive. Making mistakes in public is a good way of progressing if people are helpful in the way they support us in changing our views. Banter and feedback work best when people know you are on their side. Ideally, there is only one side.

Hans Rosling is one of my favourite presenters. In the TED clip below, they talk about how to challenge our ignorance about the world with some basic rules of thumb. In a democratic world, we want people's views to be implemented by those in charge. We want to empower people. But... in truth, this gets uncomfortable. Very uncomfortable. There are lots of crazy views out there. Often the really crazy views are held by small groups. More often than we'd like, they are held by lots of people. Even most people. Modern systems put checks and balances in place to give people a voice but have certain things you don't get to vote on. While it is okay for most of us to create bubbles and get on with it, there are some very complicated things we really need someone to think about deeply and go beyond basic rules of thumb. There are some things where we all benefit if the decision maker goes beyond personal bias, outdated facts and media bias, and makes unpopular decisions.

You can't not be ignorant. You can try be less ignorant. Pick a better bundle.

Acting Despite Confusion

If we were to wait to understand how things worked, we wouldn't do anything. People are blessed with wonderful imaginations, the ability to forget, and incredible confidence relative to what we actually know. Before we have an answer, we make one up and we live according to that. Fortunately (if closer to the truth), once the evidence is overwhelming or someone has a better story (or someone has a sword/gun/bomb) we have the ability to change our minds and actions. The evidence points to us improving - see Our World in Data - even though it doesn't feel that way. It doesn't feel that way for the same reason we can act in a world we don't understand. We don't step back and analyse everything. We are very good at responding to thin slices of reality.

Whether it is understanding the world, or just managing our daily lives and what to do, technology can help. With the Big Picture, it can help Steven Pinker and Max Roser (from Our World in Data) provide evidence for new stories which are closer to the truth, and Here & Now it can help people like Dan Ariely, author of 'Predictably Irrational' to have a stab at creating an app to sort through the madness:

Because of the ways calendars are created, people actually take more meetings than they should. Why? Because meetings are incredibly easy to represent on the calendar. Two weeks from now, you see that Wednesday is open. But it’s not really open. It’s just that the things you need to do aren’t represented, and you don’t remember them.

 With our creativity and a little help, we can understand and act better.

Chipping Away

The world is complex. Whatever we choose to have a crack at trying to understand really well, we are by default choosing other areas in which to be ignorant. We need to trust others to head in other directions because we know that the idea of a Philosopher King is crazy in a world that is impossible for any individual to understand. We need a system that collectively understands. Even then, the collective system will always only be chipping away at its ignorance. We need mechanisms for trial and error, and continual feedback. One of the strengths of humans we don't understand is the creative ability in our messy approach to problem solving. It is the reason that computers can't yet beat humans in Go. I thought the talk below is a great example of an attempt to chip away at ignorance. The Dalai Lama has spent a lifetime considering the emotional approach to happiness. He is a 'Moral Giant'. Others on the panel have focused on economics and moral psychology. The Dalai Lama is chipping away at his criticisms of Capitalism. The idea of secular moral discussions and bringing together leaders across fields to grapple with the way forward is very appealing. Beyond leaders, it would be great if outside our areas of specialisation where we are consciously improving, we all chipped away at our ignorance in other areas.