Friday, August 05, 2022
Build It
Monday, January 31, 2022
Increasingly Released
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
The Power of Grayskull
Risk is not just the chance that something will go wrong. The study of risk goes wider than that. Looking at the complexity, ambiguity, and randomness of the world and asking whether within that, “is there anything that we can rely on?” When you look at an individual instance of something, it is a bit of a roll of the dice. At least with dice, while there is uncertainty, there can only be six clearly defined outcomes. With a coin, there can only be two outcomes. If it is a fair dice, and you roll it enough times there will be roughly the same number of ones, twos, threes, fours, fives, and sixes. If a coin is fair, toss it enough times they will be roughly half tails and half heads. It is not merit that drives victory. Actuarial Science is partly the study of, and attempt to weather the storms of, the underlying distribution rather than the specific result. The distribution is the variety of outcomes that are possible. Alternative histories. A form of “there, but for the grace of God, go I”. What happens if we pool risk, and stop taking full credit for everything that goes well or badly? What happens if we admit that we are not Masters of the Universe?
Thursday, September 24, 2020
Mad as a Potter
Somewhere in Cape Town lives a crazy potter named John. He is not hard to find if you follow the trail of creativity he leaves in his wake. He used to live (conspicuously) a couple of houses down from me when I was in Harfield Village. His dream was/is to bake some houses that would grow into a Creative Community. A group of people coming together to make beauty. Community building is hard. Even with passion. I also want to build a virtual Community of 150 people that pays Basic Incomes and builds a Community Wealth Fund. The challenge is who?, how?, and around what common fire? What happens when (not if) people leave? As we discard geography, race, class and other containers, how do we build new ones to support each other? In a world where tomorrow is very different from yesterday, what does a thriving us look like?
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Muy BIEN
“A Basic Income is a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or work requirement. (1) Periodic - It is paid at regular intervals (for example every month), not as a once-off grant. ,(2) Cash Payment – It is paid in an appropriate medium of exchange, allowing those who receive it to decide what they spend it on, (3) Individual – It is paid on an individual basis, and not (for example) to households, (4) Universal – It is paid to all without a means test, (5) It is paid without a requirement to work or to demonstrate a willingness to work” https://basicincome.org/about-basic-income/. There are a variety of pilot projects going on which make different simplifying assumptions to turn Basic Income into a reality. I like the idea of Community Wealth Funds. Building Communities with strong financial foundations, through voluntary short-term commitment to transfers from those with the capacity to fund the project, and the long-term building of Capital to make the idea sustainable. With sufficient time, we can build Engines to fund basic incomes for all.
Tuesday, September 01, 2020
Building the Assets
The largest 300 Pension Funds collectively hold about $18 trillion (12 zeros) worth of assets. The idea of a retirement fund has taken root. That you can build capital to put to work on your behalf when you no longer can. Many Retirements Schemes started life as Defined Benefit Pension Plans (DB). This means the payment was a promise from the container the retiree was part of (employer/sponsor). The amount of the promise depended on formulas based on length of service, final salary, and age (for example) rather than on investment returns. Many were funded Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) with those currently working effectively paying those who retired directly. PAYG is fragile with a constant balance between contributors and beneficiaries. There has been a big shift to Defined Contribution (DC) where individual accounts are set up. Where the amount paid depends on the Capital built over the working life. There are lessons to be learnt in figuring out how Universal Basic Income can be funded. How do we build the assets to support strong, flexible, foundations?
















