Daily Practice

Chris "Jesus" Ferguson is a World Champion Poker player. He was asked what percentage of poker is luck. He believes any given hand is 99% luck. Any given game is 90% luck. Any given year is 10% luck. Any given hand doesn't matter very much at all. It is how you play that matters. Even if you win a hand, it is a problem if you played the hand badly. I believe the same is true of what we do. What we do any given day doesn't matter very much. What we do every day matters a lot. Growth is cumulative. Growth compounds. Our intuitive, sub-conscious abilities, are the product of daily practice. What we repeat every day becomes who we are. The way we react every day, becomes an automatic behaviour. Autonomy isn't about any given decision. Empowerment isn't control of every outcome. It is about stepping back, breathing, and seeing how you make decisions. Why you make decisions. Then taking control of your Daily Practice. 

Chris Ferguson

Poker Money

I have never been in a proper physical fight. Some facing up, and posturing, but never in a full flung war. So I am not sure how I would respond. The closest I have come to battle is Rugby. 

As a 12-year-old tiny pipsqueak, I was fairly fearless and would take on the famously big Mario from Northwood. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. As a 13-year-old, I had moved from the scrum to the wing (sans speed) and was fairly easy to scare. The "13-year-old" eight-foot-guy from Glenwood with his kids cheering from his car, was welcome to run through me. My confidence returned a bit when my growth spurt kicked in, and I moved back to the side of the scrum. I was happy to get involved again.

Battles normally involved "looking someone in the eye" and a hard tackle, unless it was in a pile-up. Once, my team won a penalty because someone bit my nipple (through my jersey!) in front of the ref. Another time, this time at University, my nose was broken with a punch from the Police (not the cleanest Rugby players).

There is nothing abstract about facing up to someone you know can hurt you. For all the bravado, most Gents learn a fair amount about de-escalation because they know how much it hurts the next day.

Actual war, which I have been very lucky to avoid, used to be a similar face-to-face affair. Gradually, as it becomes a tech battle... guns replaced swords, bombs replace bullets, and people end up getting in their car and driving home for dinner after dropping a drone. Abstract.

This is a problem with the world of money as things get bigger. There is a disconnect between reality and financial decision making. We don't see things getting made. We don't see big parts of the world we are connected to.

"Poker Money" is an idea related to the famous song The Gambler - you never count your money, when you're sitting at the table. When playing Poker, you can't think of the chips as real money. It affects your decision. The best players in the world can be beaten by really rich (semi-competent) people who can raise the stakes to a point where the great player cares too much about an individual hand or game.

Even real money becomes Poker Money is a connected world. "The Law of One Price" is that the same thing should cost the same everywhere. This is a "Law" only in principle because it is not true in reality. Transaction costs and barriers mean we have to pay very much dependent on where we are.

This means that the price of a cup of coffee a day in the UK (say £2.50 for 30 days) would currently translate into about R1,300/month in South Africa. The Upper Bound Poverty Line (UBPL) in South Africa was moved from R992 a month (2015) to R1,138 (in 2017). In 2015, it was estimated 55% of South Africans lived below the UBPL. 

As a Soutie, that is crazy to wrap my head around. I am "sitting at the Poker Table", so I can't think of the Pounds I spend in Rands. The Afrikaans saying for doing that would involve "'n klein bietjie kots in my mond".

The challenge is getting the right balance between living life locally, and being in a global world. We are interdependent, but there are many obstacles, costs, barriers and local challenges that mean we aren't looking each other in the eyes. Our realities are detached from each other.

Poker Money is real money. Drones are real fights. The Global World is a Local World.

Bad Beat

When I was 25, I was still living in a student style shared house. The back garden needed mowing, but I was a cheapskate. I am still a cheapskate. Instead of buying a lawn mower, I bought a machete. I left the machete on the kitchen table. At that time, a group of friends and I were very into poker. The more you play poker, the more likely you are to learn that anything that has a remote possibility of happening, will happen regularly. If you play regularly. When only one card in a deck of 52 will make you lose, and that is the card that comes. This is called a 'Bad Beat'. I didn't need a lawnmower, because friends who had Bad Beats would take turns on the back garden. Until they (and I) learnt the lesson that you should never put the things that really matter at risk. Only sit at the table with what you are prepared to lose. Even a 'Bad Beat' is just another hand.

Odds and Odd People

I love playing Poker. I don't like gambling. Poker is the only Casino game I know of where the house has to explicitly take a little bit of each pot because the game isn't rigged in their favour. 

With Roulette, whatever your strategy, every time you spin you lose (in the long run). With Blackjack, the really skilled players are able to get their odds close to the houses. In the very long run the house will win. The good players play because they enjoy it and might get lucky. I don't like either game. With Poker on the other hand, you are playing the other people at the table. 

People make crazy decisions. Emotions get involved. We do stuff that doesn't make sense, but is fun. We go on gut. We mix it up. Few games I have been involved in have tested my emotions as much as poker. You can lose big with two Aces. You can make lots of money with the worst cards you can get (2 and 7 off suit). Anything can happen with any one hand. A crazy decision can work out. In the long run, it is the people who are able to combine the facts and the fiction who do the best. The people who know the odds and understand the people. The people who understand themselves, their strengths, and their weaknesses, and who adjust accordingly.

Dogs (K9) and Poker Faces

Poker and Cricket

Watching SA going out of another cricket world cup gives me some empathy for the poor New Zealand Rugby supporters. Become far too seasoned at processing the disappointment.

A nerve wracking French Open down... and likely heart burn in Wimbledon coming up, sometimes I wonder whether being passionate about sport is really worth it.

Like poker though... you probably only get good when losing a hand, or a game doesn't bother you. You treat each new one without any consideration other than the lessons you learnt from the last one. To get really good, you have to not care, both about the ones you win and the ones you lose. But still really want to win more in the long run than you lose.

Hmmm... I suspect when SA win a cricket world cup... I will be sitting in the corner with a poker face.

A little different from back here.

How I would like to think

These are men with bold ideas, but highly critical of their own ideas; they try to find whether their ideas are right by trying to find whether they are not perhaps wrong. They work with bold conjectures and severe attempts at refuting their own conjectures. (Karl Popper)

I am sure I have seen this quote before but I am busy reading `Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Taleb, and this quote really sat true with the way I am thinking at the moment.

Bold Conjectures, means you are allowed opinions
Severe attempts at refuting your own conjectures, means you should actively and aggressively seek ideas out which threaten your way of thinking.

Something else I liked so far from the book was the idea of `distilled thinking'. Anyone who has played poker with me for any extended period knows I hate rabbit hunting. Rabbit hunting is when even though the hand has ended and been won or lost before all the cards are dealt, the remaining cards are dealt to see what `would have happened'. What would have happened is meaningless, it didn't. It couldn't be less important. In fact even when you win a hand, it doesn't mean you played it write. Winning, then spouting forth about why your strategy or decision was great BECAUSE you won is silly. More important is did you do the right thing given what COULD have happened.

We judge ourselves in life based on what HAS happened. This is also wrong, and fairly useless in helping us go forward. What COULD have happened is far more important.

The loser may have made the best move, and faced with that decision again... it may be best to do what the loser did.

Don't think I would like Taleb in person... social skills may be lacking. But I am very much enjoying the book.

The Art of Possibility

After listening to Benjamin Zander's TED talk, and hearing about his book, I was given Exclusive Books vouchers as a parting gift from my colleagues in Cape Town.

The 4 books I got were The Zander's `The Art of Possibility', `Fooled by Randomness', `The Google Story', and `Gary Kasparov's Why Life is like Chess'. I read the first one today, inspired by the TED talk.

The theme of the talk is much the same as of the book and it is very inspirational. I was always a cynic. Well, that is not completely true, if you read my ridiculously optimistic and bright eyed Std. 6 creative writing. It is more true that I always regarded with suspicion `motivational' speakers. Maybe more so after growing more disillusioned with religion. I am realising that there is actually a lot of value in these `approaches to life', that offer no superstition or ritual, but simple processes with which to deal with whatever life throws at you, and throw back!

One of the things they speak about is having pre-programmed ways of dealing with situations you know you are likely to face. The example they give is of falling out of a boat while white water rafting. Repeating phrases `toes to nose', and `look for the boat, grab an oar'. People think they can swim and ignore these, but when being thrown around in the water not knowing up from down, phrases like these can save your life.

I have heard a similar thing about practicing dialing `911'. Apparently in panic mode, you may forget what to do... practicing dialing emergency numbers may save your life.

I have spoken before about how much I learned about myself by playing poker. Poker is a long term game. If you allow yourself to get upset about individual hands, or even games, you are going to get upset a lot. When you look down at the cards you are dealt and see `AA', you think... I have to win, this is MY hand. I have waited more than 200 hands to see these cards. Then you lose... and often with overplayed `AA' you lose big cause you just can't let go.

Knowing how you react to situations in advance, like getting that `AA', and deciding in advance how to act or rather when to let go can make all the difference.

1. Realising when you are `seeing red' and being illogical because you are angry.
2. Knowing you are about to say something you will regret.
3. Becoming Anxious.
4. losing sight of the bigger picture, taking yourself or something too seriously.

These are all things we do, and know we do. Wouldn't it be great if you were able to catch yourself in the act, and stop yourself before you do it!

Reckon that comes with practice.

Anyway, read the book... only 200 pages and in my view pretty insightful. Like everything there will be bits you use and bits you don't.

The Power of Disinterest

When I started playing poker, it brought out the very very worst in me. It didn't help that I was playing against someone who if he didn't get bored could probably play professionally. Thing is, poker is a game of skill and I wasn't skillful. Poker is a game where the noise disappears in the long run, but you can get lucky in the short run. You can also get unlucky. You can have a 96% chance of winning with one card to come, and only one card out of the entire remaining deck that can beat you.

Here's a surprise... 96% doesn't mean you won't lose. 4% of the time you will.

Play long enough and you will see some absolutely bizarre things happen. Spend a little bit of time with a poker player and they will recount the horrors of their many `bad beats'. I have a few... at the hands of the current South African Poker Champion (nothing like a bit of name dropping).

In the beginning though, it felt like the world was against me. On occasion I would absolutely lose the plot. It was embarrassing, but fortunately most of the people experienced similar or played with me long enough to see an improvement in my emotional control. I have probably learnt more about myself through poker than through any other game I have played.

And this brings me to the point of this post. The power of disinterest. The minute you are too invested in the outcome of any given decision, you are at a massive disadvantage.

1) If you care too much whether you are right or wrong.
2) If you really have to sell your house/car quickly.
3) If you really like/love someone to the point of irrationality.
4) Negotiating a business deal that you NEED to go through.
5) Renting a place out that you can't afford to leave vacant.
6) Risking too much money at one go on a poker table.
7) Being interviewed for a job you REALLY REALLY want.

I have always thought that being disinterest equates to a lack of passion. I enjoyed the rush of blood in an argument where I was trying to win. Not trying to `win' takes the fun out of it, right? Isn't the emotional roller coaster of poker/golf/sport the fun bit? If I don't care if South Africa or the Sharks win or lose, will I enjoy the wins as much? Is my bitter devastation at losing the Super 14 last year, or tying the 1999 CWC semi the price I pay for the enjoyment of victory?

I don't know the answer with sport, but with poker, business and seeking the truth I think it is clearer...

Not caring about short term loses puts you in a better position to have long term gains.

A Month's Pocket Money

I enjoy playing poker. I don’t enjoy gambling. Most people think they are the same thing and so did I until I started playing about 4 years ago.

My first experience with gambling was losing a month's pocket money (R50) as a 12 year old at the Westville Fair. I was playing a game of darts which had three stripes… two thick ones in red and blue, and a thin one in white. The board in the front had a red, white, and blue square. If you put your money in the red or blue square and the dart landed there, the `house’ matched your bet. If the dart hit the white stripe, and you had money in the white square, the `house’ doubled it. I was about R20 up at one stage and in a short space of time went from that to nothing. But now my `willingness to take risk had changed’. When I started, I was betting 50 cents or R1, and had made my way to R20 over a long period of time. I then got a little more risky, since it was `the house’s money’, and my bets got bigger. Soon, I was back to even. But my bets didn’t get smaller. I wanted to get back to R20, and I wanted to get there quickly! But it went the opposite way. I liked the feeling of winning, but I didn’t like the feeling of losing. My blood pumped through my veins, I felt like my temperature was rising, and I felt desperately out of control. On top of that, I had no pocket money left.

I promised myself I would never gamble again.

My next gambling experience was when my aunt and uncle took my mom and I to Sun City. My uncle gave me some money which he expressly told me was for gambling, and I couldn’t use it for anything else, and he didn’t care if I lost it. And lose it I did.

At university, some of my friends enjoyed hitting Grand West Casino playing outside bets on the roulette table. I wouldn’t go. Eventually one night, I did go. And I won R700! I treated my 7 flat mates to a dinner, and was rather chuffed, but it wasn’t enough to get me hooked. I had a strict betting rule. If I placed a bet and won, the chip that won the bet was banked… the winnings could be bet again, and I only started with two chips to bet. I couldn’t stand the idea of walking out of a casino having lost a lot of money.

Then one night, I was a friends house and they were playing poker with copper coins. I joined in since it was a R10 buy in or something. I really enjoyed the game, and started finding it very suspicious that Nick (there are so many Nicks who play poker, they have to be given nicknames.) won every single week without fail. He would win with a pair. I would lose. One hand he would win with a straight, and the very next hand when I had a straight, someone else would have a flush. It made no sense! No sense if it was gambling. I soon realized that that is exactly the point. Poker is not gambling, poker is a game of skill.

Well, played properly it is not gambling. The better players come out on top in the long run. Chris Ferguson (a former world champion) says any one hand is probably 99% luck, any one game is probably 90% luck, but over a year, it is probably only 10% luck. I have no research to back this up, but over the time that I have played, I think it is pretty accurate.

Poker pretty much ended my desire to gamble. Just after starting playing, I went to a Comedy Festival at Grand West with my girlfriend at the time, as risk-averse if not more than me being a Chartered Accountant in the making. I really wanted a Milky Lane waffle, and had just R100 on me. We also wanted to just give the gambling a little go… so I decided I would play a little bit, then buy the waffle. I got two R50 chips. I bet on black… it was red. I bet on black again… it was red again. My R100 was gone, and I had no waffle to show for it.

It took me a whole evening to lose R100 to Nick playing poker. Like a little boy who loses a month's pocket money, I didn’t want to play any more.

Poker Champion

A friend of mine, Darren Kramer, recently won the South African Poker Championship with a first prize of R 1,000,000 ($140,575).

Darren is a great guy and a wonderful poker player, but that doesn't stop me from being jealous when I sit at my desk over a long weekend studying.

Thing is, this wasn't once off. Darren came 3rd in the All-Africa Poker championship winning over R200,000 and a full-expenses trip to play in the 2006 World Series.

Poker is very much a game of skill. One of the best,Chris Ferguson ran an experiment last year , and following various rules, he turned $0 into $10,000.

I started playing online poker in September 2005 by deposting R400 onto a site. The highest I managed to grow that to was R10,500... but I am back down to R3,000. I like Mr Ferguson manage my bankroll very carefully, and so two and a half years of entertainment hasn't cost me a cent. I, unlike Mr Ferguson, did break the rules occassionaly which pushed me back to virtual square one.

What did make me feel better though was that it did take him almost a year to achieve his goal, and I am not even close to the league he is in.

What doesn't make me feel good is the number of friends I have making bucket loads of money in the game. Makes me seem like a horrible person. I should be happy for them. I am. Very. But... I am a very financially conservative, long term thinking guy with bucket loads of actuarial and financial analyst prudence... but oooooooo.... what crazy things I would get up to if I won lots of money playing poker :-)

It just seems money won in that way just begs to be spent recklessly.

Oh well, let me get back to my R100 buy in games (after a 3 month break) while Darren plays his games with R100/R200 blinds and R20,000 buy ins.

To think, I knew him when he was just a boy ;-)