In Between

Actions have consequences. Both intended and unintended. The desire to count and maximise has the unintended consequence of undervaluing the future. If you make your decisions by simplifying complexity down to two simple numbers (Return and Risk), the result is a just-watching-your-feet time horizon. The underlying assumption is you will have the opportunity to make a different decision for the next time frame that does consider the future when its turn comes. Aiming for returns of 15-20% would mean anything beyond a 5 to 10-year time horizon almost does not enter your consideration. The most powerful investment forces are space and time. Space between production and consumption. Time between contribution and extraction. Rather than short sprints, thinking with a long timeframe in mind allows you to focus on sustainability and consistency. A long timeframe forces you to think of things that cannot be simplified into numbers.

Observable Universe Logarithmic Map

Uncontrollable

I have always envied Hole Diggers. Someone whose job it is to dig 6 holes. They dig 8, drop the mic, and leave work early. The ask and offer is incredibly clear. I used to love Maths at school. Yes, Mrs Chick used to tease me about going via Cape Town to a solution, but it was either right or wrong. And she could show me the short cuts. Mr Lichkus and I would go head to head in epic battles in the Art Room. I had to lean into chaos. I once let my classmates have an hour to do whatever they wanted to my piece. Flames and burnt plastic followed. As I coughed and sneezed black stuff from my nose during the next period in English class (similarly ambiguous), I did have a break through on reflection. Much harder won. In the Investment world people pretend it’s maths. That their track record points to their success. Except when that track record disappears. Then it is church, or art class, or English. Anything with wiggle room. Ambiguity provides space for BS. It also provides space for beauty. In the eye of the beholder, and in the control of the beholden.

Fire and Earth

STEM Engine

What are you counting? I have always had a love for both Art and Maths. In deciding on a career, I chose to be pragmatic. The harsh reality is STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) subjects are more efficient money-making containers. Money making requires something you can count. If you can’t count it, you can’t measure it. If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it. If you can’t manage it, you can’t control it. If you can’t control it, you can’t make money from it. It is a fundamental misunderstanding of pricing to think qualitative subjects don’t add the value of quantitative subjects. Price isn’t value. It just reduces the complex down to a tool for comparison. It creates a market that allows Due Diligence (alternatives, reliability, fairness). This doesn’t mean we have to live in a STEM world. It does mean that STEM Engines are more reliable. It is far easier to use Maths to make money, and free your Art from the constraints of supply and demand. Build an Engine you can count on, for the things that count.

Steam Locomotive