Bite Size

In the first-ever introductory yoga class I attended, the intention was just to allow you relax. They did not teach a lot. It was just a taste. 

As a Marketing Actuary, I also learned that you don't try and give people too much information in one session. You can't dump knowledge. The way we learn is in small bites. We adapt slowly in successive approximation. Learning little bits, and gradually connecting everything. Good teachers don’t correct all your mistakes every time. 

The main aim of that first session, with a yogi named Bhima, was to feel relaxed. The default in learning is often to move on from simple things. To feel like we know how to relax, walk, breathe, swim, and run. Mastering something that is simple on the surface requires unlearning a lot of bad habits. With a little bit of guidance. In that first session, I walked away feeling a connection to that stillness. 

The first question we were asked is "how do you relax?" The most sophisticated yoga posture is called Savasana. Also known as the Corpse Pose. Like in investing, one of the most sophisticated responses is "doing nothing". Physical yoga is mostly about learning to relax the body. Investing is also about learning to let money do the work for you.

Job Rotation

My first job change was internal. This meant different dynamics to normal job hunts of deciding if someone is “good enough”. There was a rotation committee, and an understanding that people are on learning curves. You are balancing an individual’s career path with the needs of the company. There is still the challenge of limited roles and seats being open or not. You cannot simply pick a job you want and develop the skills required. Timing is a thing. A seat came open for the Marketing Actuary role in Joburg. I had not finished learning what there was to learn in Product Development. My old boss and new boss had overlapping interests though. Marketing Actuaries work with Product Development to listen to what is needed, and iterate towards solutions. There are always trade-offs as people come and go. It helps when there is the common ground of a bigger container.

Thinking Sustainably

The hardest part of most businesses is finding new clients. Even if you are good at it, there is always the existential risk that there is a limit to the number of people who want what you are offering. Needing new clients isn’t sustainable. Big Game Hunting is also seductively attractive. A single big client can let you think you have seen the matrix, and pop the Champagne. But. There isn’t much big game in a world with an excess of hunters. Hand-to-Mouth living requires a constant, replenishing source. That is why sustainability has to be at the heart of every solution. Now is only worth celebrating in the context of later. We have to eat.  So Hand-to-Mouth is the only first step. Depending on others while you don’t have the necessary skills and knowledge. Depending on yourself when you do. Smoothing and softening that dependence with a Buffer. Building an Engine to detach dependence. Making sure you can comeback. Making sure today provides a platform for tomorrow. Softening the hardest part every day by strengthening and deepening relationships.

Impressive but not Sustainable

If You Care

I did Marketing courses at University, but I didn’t learn Marketing there. My approach comes mainly from following Seth Godin. I was once told by a client (who actually liked me) that I am “the worst salesperson they know”. This is because I don’t play the game. In a world that is complex, ambiguous, and random, the product is normally confidence. Clients are confused and are looking for someone to provide clarity in the form of Point A (here, problem) and Point B (there, solution). I believe in relationship building (which takes time), trust (which takes competence, vulnerability, and time), and expectation management (which takes honesty, and time). Three key pillars of Seth Godin’s approach are Storytelling, Permission Marketing, and Tribe Building. You need to understand the story of the listener for your story to resonate. The stories need to merge. You need to see each other. You need to get to a stage where if you weren’t there, you would be missed. Your voice and help isn’t interrupting, it is desired. Good marketing isn’t a transaction with the pressure on one party to deliver. It is a relationship. The word may seem dirty, but if you care about something, you are a marketer.

Seth's Blog

The Right Incentives

Whether you are in politics, education, academia, business or the home, most of what we do ends up being about people management. Management of ourselves, and management of the way we engage with others. Why do we do things? What drives us, and what pulls us? Incentives and processes that will bring out the best in us. What does the best mean? Do we agree? Are we working with or against each other? In "All Marketers are Liars", Seth Godin argues that we are all Marketers. If you have an idea you believe in, you need to be a Marketer. All Marketers are storytellers. We are all storytellers.

Two stories I have come across are forms of incentivization that contrast quite strongly. The "Wolves at the Door" and the "Money off the table" approach.

The first turns the heat up. It works for underconfident overachievers. The idea being that in order to get the best out of someone, you have to put them in a corner and keep them hungry. Nothing is every good enough. There is always more to do. There is always something you got wrong. There is never cause for celebration that does not come with a caveat of "must do better".

The second turns the spirit up. It works for people with deeply internalized motivation. The crude incentives (like money, promotions, prestige) are no longer important because there is something else that gets the person out of bed. Things are good enough as they are. Sometimes there is nothing to do. Mistakes are simply a positive part of the learning process in that they mean you are exploring rather than repeating. They are a sign of life. There is a pulse of celebration.

Personally, I don't work well in a corner. I recognize that some people love it. Anxiety, busyness, and a tinge of fear keep them sharp. Fight mode. When that fire goes away, the systems switch off and motivation is a challenge. A lot of people look for corners.

I have the opposite response. I believe there is seldom value in rushing. Sometimes the smartest thing to do is just keep quiet. To admit you don't know the answer, and it will take time to explore the options. To chip away slowly at the problem. Start early and breathe.

Trade

When you trade (swap things), or have a trade (do tasks), the rules of supply and demand are pretty clear. Markets work best when there is a countable thing involved. They work best when there are enough competitors to keep each other honest. They work best when the barriers to entry are low enough, that new competitors can reduce excessive profits. When regulation protects the stakeholders rather than those big enough to afford the paperwork to comply. They work best when barriers to exit are low enough, so sunk costs don't trap you in a business that should really die. As economies shift away from manufacturing to the knowledge and service industries, it gets much more complicated, ambiguous and random. It boils down to storytelling. If you tell a good story that connects to an individual, all the other rules fall away. That makes me uncomfortable in an unconnected world without the constraints of permanent relationships. The clarity of a trade is very appealing.

Storytelling

Bubble Bursting

Part of the Cambridge Analytica outrage was due to the realisation that we were being manipulated. That other people were trying to do to us, what we try to do to others. Namely, change people's opinions to match our own. We are all marketers. If you have something you care about, and feel the world is not exactly the way you want it to be. If you are in any way an Activist. The more you signal your beliefs, and surround yourself by people who agree, the easier you are to manipulate. Someone who listens more than they speak has inbuilt protection. Someone who may agree with the person on the left, or on the right. Tribes are particularly easy to manipulate. Particularly if the individuals don't think for themselves, and merely fall in line with the majority. '50% + 1' rule is salt, fat, and sugar to the Gravy Train. Popularity is easy. Empowerment takes ears. If you want to empower yourself, burst your bubble. 

Popularity is Easy

Permission

You are a Marketer. Everybody is a Marketer.

Despite hating money, I did do a few marketing courses at university, but I can't really remember any significant takeaways. I met some good guys doing projects together but largely thought of marketing as advertising. Coming up with clever(ish) ideas and then funny, sexy, violent or interesting ways to sell them. Through an interest in public speaking and presentations, I came across Garr Reynolds and his Presentation Zen blog. That had a huge impact on my work, and I tried hard to implement many of his awesome ideas to avoid 'death by powerpoint'. One excellent speaker Garr pointed to as an example, who turned out to be a blogger, an author an at heart a marketer was Seth Godin. His bite size daily blog changed the whole way I thought about marketing.

Lots of people see marketing as manipulation. We know we all have to make a living, but it grates that people are sugar coating things to foist stuff on us that if we had full information, we wouldn't want. The idea that we live in a consumer culture which tricks us makes our blood boil. One choice is to ignore all that. To choose to live an authentic life and do the things that matter to you, and not worry about money and marketing and all that soul destroying, life sucking, mind numbing noise.

The irony is that authenticity is at the heart of what makes good marketing. Reading about marketing from Seth Godin will release the artist in you, not the machine. In the past, marketing may have been limited to TV adverts that shouted at a confined audience providing them with commoditised products. Now, you have to 

• Earn permission. (Permission Marketing)
• Do something remarkable. (Purple Cow)
• Tell a story that matters. (All Marketers Tell Stories)
• Find people that it matters to. (Tribes)
• Give them something that matters, to you & to them - to create Art (Linchpin)

Godin's idea of marketing is that the interaction with you will be missed if it doesn't happen. Unlike a TV advert which interrupts and irritates you, permission marketing involves doing something that adds conspicuous value in a very authentic way. The best way to earn this permission is to be genuine. To do something that puts a spark in your eye, and find people who will feed off that flame.

It's exciting stuff, and certainly changed my idea of business. Business at its heart is problem solving. Marketing is part of how those problems are solved. If something matters to you, you are a marketer.

 

Stories Worth Hearing

We live a story. Stories take a few facts and weave them together to create something that makes sense. We can't wait until we understand things. We are still trying to figure things out, but have to carry on living, and so we tell ourselves and those around us stories. I am a big fan of the placebo effect. Sometimes things work because of the story we tell ourselves. You can take this in one of two ways. You can be incredibly skeptical about everything and try and strip out the 'story premium' that you pay for everything. You can focus on the facts. The thing is life will be less fun. The fact that it is the story that added value does not mean that value wasn't added. If you keep your wits about you, I think there is a better life to be lived by leaning into some stories and 'faking it'. Seth Godin is a master storyteller, and believes that we are all marketers. He is very open with his approach and writes a bite sized daily blog. 

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/

His books are worth reading. The heart of his message is to be authentic and consistent, and to remember that most of what we believe, do, and buy is based on a story. The facts are important, but they are important as part of a story of consistency. They earn trust in a world where that is rare. They prevent holes from appearing. One litmus test he suggests in 'Permission Marketing' is whether your story would be missed if it didn't appear. A lot of marketing used to be about broadcasting. There were only a few TV channels and everyone watched them. Teachers, Artists, Business People, Religious Leaders etc. weren't fighting for attention. That has all changed. You can't just shout and expect people to listen. You have to understand them and help them create their story. Or they will just go somewhere else.

If we know that people are trying to tell us stories, and we don't want to be taken for a ride, what do we do? I think you need to allow a 'Bull Quota'. You need to suspend disbelief to enjoy people's stories. Listen to them and try to understand their world view. Don't take looking for the holes as a starting point. Find the the reason why those holes are worth having. It doesn't mean you have to take on the holes in your own story. When you watch a movie, you don't remember the whole thing. You take some of the flavour. You remember an anecdote or two and the way the movie made you feel. If you allow people some leeway, you can get to see how their story makes them feel. Once the movie ends, you can tear it to pieces and dissect it with all your sceptical superpowers to your heart's content. You get the best of both worlds. 

Wedding Rings & Neknominations

De Beers created the Diamond Engagement Ring meme. A lot of people criticise this as an example of corporate manipulation to make money. I am less convinced. I think it fed a cultural desire and added to the story of an engagement. Like photos are often the most important part of a holiday adding the ability to reminisce and tell stories, the ladies do love to show off their rings. It is not a secret that you don't have to buy a diamond ring - we are willing participants. True, maybe it is the ladies that are more willing than the men - but it helps the guy get the girl. Stories matter. And getting the girl matters!

The Neknomination viral videos where someone downs a beer and then nominates two people to do the same caused another reaction. Some said that instead of downing a beer, you should buy lunch for someone who can't afford it. The Neknominations went viral partly because they involved a bit of fun. It is something that Movember got right in the ability to combine a good cause with a bit of fun.

What all these things combine is the power of shared stories and the power of fun. We could create the meme that in order to get married, you had to publicly donate two months salary to a charity of your future brides choice. In order to accept, she had to do the same. Would that be fun? You could create conversations around who you chose, but while a great idea, I don't think it would spread.

As we get wealthier, we have more time and willingness to engage with charities that matter to us. I think the fundraisers and meme spreaders who appeal to positive emotions like fun will have more success than those that appeal to guilt. I also a believer that people do want to help empower the less fortunate. Time to get creative.

A Crazy Potter Who Likes Tea

Whenever I visit John Bauer, it is like been transported into some parallel, rather odd universe.

John is a potter. A crazy potter. A crazy potter who likes tea. And John the crazy potter who likes tea will have a cup up tea with you in his rather odd universe in Greenwood Road, Harfield Village. You would not need a house number. His house/study/universe is rather obvious.

John reminds me of the movie 'The Prestige'. The reason for this is that when you first meet him, it seems like he is acting. Think of some amalgamation between the Queens English, a libertine, a conservative, a west end theatre actor and you may have a taste of his strange world. Why I say he reminds me of 'The Prestige' is the consistency with which he lives this life.

It is not stretching the truth to say he lives pottery. It is everywhere, and he lives within his workshop - constantly producing.

John is a good example of Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours combined with no fear of making mistakes. There is stuff he does which can't be taught. He has stumbled across new techniques as he becomes fascinated by the 'errors' he makes and tries to build on their beauty.

Needless to say, I am a big fan of his work.

The Bees that came to live with John...

Permission Marketing

The idea behind Seth Godin's Permission Marketing is that your interactions with clients through anticipated, personal and relevant messages.

This is very different from the old model of shouting at people with advertising. It still amazes me how people cling desperately to models that don't work. Every day when I get home I move a bunch of trash mail that gets sent to me and those in my flat out of my way. I don't look at that rubbish... do other people?

I sign up for Setanta. Next thing I get a call. Because I have paid already I assume that they are phoning me for something about the account or to check that it is working. No, instead, it turns out to be a marketing call. It was not anticipated, it was not personal and it was not relevant.

Just because you have my number, doesn't give you the right to phone me. Just because I have an email and a postal address doesn't give you the right to send me stuff. Just because I am your client, doesn't give you the right to spam me.

Send me stuff I want. Don't interrupt me. Make it easy for me to find you if I want you, otherwise leave me alone.

The Internet, networks and free information flow mean great ideas spread for next to nothing. Clever adverts that are amusing can be put on YouTube and people will spread them if they are worth spreading. Bad adverts on TV will result in people changing the channel, no matter how much you paid for the space.

I hope more and more people take the effort to earn permission...

Seth's London Talk

I was lucky enough to listen to Seth Godin talk live today. It reminded me just how irreplaceable real interaction is. You can read someones blog, read their books, belong to their online social 'tribe'... but a human presence is something that can't be replaced. So, although I get accused of being a 'Yay Internet' person... I don't believe that online interaction replaces relationships, it enhances them and in my opinion relationships will always provide the juice.

He brought up many ideas. He spoke about different industries such as the newspaper, music and advertising industries and how they were having to reinvent themselves. In truth, it is a whole new beginning. Your model can't be based on physical barriers to entry. Anything that can be reproduced will be, and cheaply, and soon. If you were lucky enough to be in a university whose product was limited access to high quality education... your days are gone. Education is free. If you are a thoughtful academic who is prepared to tutor and give quality feedback, your days are just beginning.

He spoke about leadership.

'It's not about being the boss, its about being the leader'

Here's the thing. In a company, in your company, the top management choose the next level of management. Someone has to appoint you as a boss. You have to be assigned people to manage. No one chooses leaders other than those who follow them. And it isn't even following, it is being influenced by them. And it isn't really being influence by them, it is being inspired. So a leader is someone who helps other people achieve things that are important to them, not someone who gives someone else tasks. So the only person who makes someone a leader is themselves.

Another interesting thing he spoke about was in response to a question about how he finds the time to respond to everyone who emails him and posts every day. His answer was that it is about making the hard choices. He doesn't have a staff. He doesn't go to meetings. He doesn't watch TV. That gives him about 6 more hours a day than the average person, and he uses that to respond to emails. If he responds to 200 a day, 1000 a week, 4000 a month, 50000 a year... that is 50000 person, relevant and anticipated interactions that he has not paid for. That means he understands his 'tribe'(clients) and he doesn't spend a cent on traditional advertising.

Making the tough choices is what I found interesting. Stuart's 'Revealed Preference'. My 'Inertia'. Perhaps it is just a case of actually sitting down, figuring out what matters, cutting things out and focusing on what matters to you.

Not everyone needs to have a blog. I was wrong. But... I would like to know what it is you would rather do? And I would like to know that you do that.

Another interesting comment he made was that he didn't like the title of his book, 'All marketers are liars'. Yes, it did capture interest... but lots of people didn't read the book and so didn't know what the message of his book really was. His marketing is about candor, authenticity, and meeting real needs in a personal and relevant way. His marketing is a new marketing divorced from mass media interruption and short term forced sales. It will be interesting to see if people who distrust marketing will be open enough to see that marketing has changed along with the new age of transparency and idea exchange.

The session was very interactive. People came loaded with questions and passionate to learn. What a great mix.

A new world

Six Pixels of Seperation is a new blog I have started reading. It is a kind of Marketing, kind of presentation, kind of digital/technology blog.

This particular post is looking at the new mobile workplace, and it's impact on our lifestyles and architecture. You don't really need offices anymore, you need meeting places, and `plug-in' points.

Google is well known for its effort to be the best company to work for. They put a lot of effort into making an environment conducive to creativity.

How often do people just go through the motions at work?
How often do you get to take the opportunity to be creative in your job?
Do we still need to work from an office?
How do you monitor input in a digital world, does it really matter?
What are offices going to look like in 10 years time?

The Music Industry

Seth Godin writes a lot about the Music Industry, how it has changed and how it needs to respond.

Here is the transcript of an interesting talk he gave to conference of music industry fundis.

The concern of things being easily replicable is that people won't get adequate reward for their intellectual property. Good musicians don't necessarily get that... and musicians in general have only got rewarded in the last 50/60 years in any dramatic form. The ones who got rewarded were the good marketers, not necessarily the good musicians.

The market has changed. There are still lots of ways to make money. Find them.

A concern with not protecting intellectual property is that the financial incentive to create it is removed.

The points mentioned in the comments of the last post were Movies and Pharmaceuticals.

For movies... you can't replicate cinema's easily. People still go watch movies even though they can rent a DVD cheaper... or wait for it on TV. People are willing to pay for immediacy. As for other ways to make money... I don't know... brainstorm... you can't artificially keep barriers in a digital world.

As for pharaceuticals... yes, I agree, there needs to be some way of providing financial incentives to innovate. The difficulty with health industries is the clear moral quandry. The problem extends past drugs to medical aid, and finding ways of making the medical profession financially attractive.

Nearly Infinite

I am going to cheat today and link to Seth Godin's post. But for those of you who don't follow links, I will also quote the post.

It is something to think about. Our opportunity set of books to read, movies to watch, friends to make, careers to follow, places to live, places to travel to is basically infinite... so how do you choose?

And how do you not feel overwhelmed?

In terms of books, if you read one a week and live for 80 years, you will only read about 4000(50X80) books in your life time. I don't read even close to that.

How often do you phone your family? How often do you see your friends? How many live sports, music events or theatre performances do you go to?

There is just so much to do? How do you choose? Makes sleep seem overrated... but I love sleeping.

Exciting times.

Nearly infinite (Seth Godin)

Infinite isn’t what it used to be. There used to be an infinite number of stars, and probably an infinite number of kids in high school who didn’t like you very much, but that was about it when it came to a typical human being’s interaction with the uncountable.

But now, infinite is everywhere.

There’s an infinite number of books at Barnes and Noble (you can’t read em all, in fact, you can’t even find enough time to know the name of every one, or even just the first name of every author.)

There’s certainly, for all intents and purposes, an infinite number of web pages. And even Facebook, just a small subset of the web, has an infinite number of friends for you to make.

That’s where search comes in. Search makes the infinite finite (at least for a while). With search, we turn the infinite selection on Amazon into a nearly manageable finite selection. Except search (no matter where you look) is pretty lame, and it doesn’t really turn infinite collections into manageable choices. There are thousands of Godins on Facebook, too many for me to count (though one Godin friended a family member and it appears she’s trying to friend every Godin in the world--even though my name is a three-generation old fiction). There's a lot of haystacks out there, and the needles are really good at hiding.

There are essentially an infinite number of good causes to contribute to, an infinite number of people to help, an infinite number of great records to listen to as well. The problem is finding them. Connecting. Feeling like you were successful and not missing something you really needed or wanted.

Search on the web is now grappling with this. If you know 100,000 words, names and brand names, there are now a hundred trillion different searches you can do... with only two words in combination. No, you might not want to search on Starbucks Matzoh, but you could. Just knowing what to search for is now as difficult as the search itself.

In the face of infinity, many of us are panicking and searching less, going shallower, relying on bestseller lists and simple recommendations. The vast majority of Google searches are just one or two words, and obvious ones at that. The long tail gets a lot shorter when you don’t know what’s out there.

Organizations that can help us manage the infinite are facing a huge (can I say it? nearly infinite) opportunity.

With New Eyes

www.ted.com is going to raise my internet bill dramatically... but probably my level of enthusiasm as well.

Today I downloaded and watched 2 more presentations... both highly entertaining.

1.Seth Godin talks about sliced bread
2.Malcolm Gladwell talks about Spaghetti Sauce

The thing is, these guys are not so way out there that no one could do what they do in these clips. What makes them so good is the ideas. Gladwell says um hundreds of times... but you don't care when you watch the clip.

I like the idea that we live in a world of ideas, not one that is closely defined. I like the fact that even if we have to figure out a way to motivate ourselves to access the free education from places like MIT, and the millions of books, journals, blogs, and alike... it is there.

I like the fact that we can contact whoever we want, and if we interest them, engage with whoever we want.

We live in an exciting world.

Get a Job

I enjoyed this post by Seth Godin:

Why bother having a resume
In the last few days, I've heard from top students at Cornell and other universities about my internship.

It must have been posted in some office or on a site, because each of the applications is just a resume. No real cover letter, no attempt at self marketing. Sort of, "here are the facts about me, please put me in the pile."

This is controversial, but here goes: I think if you're remarkable, amazing or just plain spectacular, you probably shouldn't have a resume at all.

Not just for my little internship, but in general. Great people shouldn't have a resume.

Here's why: A resume is an excuse to reject you. Once you send me your resume, I can say, "oh, they're missing this or they're missing that," and boom, you're out.

Having a resume begs for you to go into that big machine that looks for relevant keywords, and begs for you to get a job as a cog in a giant machine. Just more fodder for the corporate behemoth. That might be fine for average folks looking for an average job, but is that what you deserve?

If you don't have a resume, what do you have?

How about three extraordinary letters of recommendation from people the employer knows or respects?
Or a sophisticated project they can see or touch?
Or a reputation that precedes you?
Or a blog that is so compelling and insightful that they have no choice but to follow up?

Some say, "well, that's fine, but I don't have those."

Yeah, that's my point. If you don't have those, why do you think you are remarkable, amazing or just plain spectacular? It sounds to me like if you don't have those, you've been brainwashed into acting like you're sort of ordinary.

Great jobs, world class jobs, jobs people kill for... those jobs don't get filled by people emailing in resumes. Ever.

Finding a great job, or finding a great person for a job you are offering is tough. In terms of finding someone awesome, you have to be able to make a snap decision based on very little information. In terms of finding a great job, you (to use our current train of thought) have to prostitute yourself.

Very few people know what we are capable of. Very few people have the `correct impression' of us. We all know people who we know think we are very different from who we think we are. Eventually you just have to accept that not everyone can know you.

But I like Seth's idea that remarkable people don't actually do it that way... remarkable people just do their thing, and people notice... eventually.

It takes a lot of guts though.

John `The Potter' Bauer

The other day when I was at John the Potter's house he showed me an article that had been written on him.

Here is an extract

Ambling down the tree-lined streets of lower Claremont, I was struck by the spruce front gardens, flower beds and shrubs. But this spick and span fizzled out abruptly outside John's front gate where trim lawn yielded to unruly thickets of weed. In this quiet haven, the hullabaloo of green, lavender and ochre adorning John's house, seemed like an eructation at a tea party. The brood of boisterous, terracotta troglodytes whooping it up on the garden wall, could certainly face charges of disturbing the peace.

I thought the article was very amusing. John is someone who has become his own brand. He is pretentious, and I think he will admit it. He gets under lots of people's skin, and that is part of his aura. He likes to shock. He likes being `odd' John.

But... in spite of or because of that...

His ceramics is actually very good.

Moving On

Seth Godin talks about Hillary and whether she should quit.

For every brand and for every person, yesterday is irretrievably gone and tomorrow is worth a great deal.

Sunk Costs. No Regrets. Too bad so sad. Move on. Easier said than done.

I actually like Barrack Obama in the few clips I have watched, the bits I have read, and the fact that he surrounds himself with Academic Experts in each field rather than politicians.

BUT, for some reason I like Hillary too. Some of the things she has said don't sit right with me, but maybe it is the fact that I think a woman in charge of the White House is a good thing.

That is sexist. I think I support her because she would be the first female in the white house (as boss), and that is wrong. I should look at it ignoring that just like I ignore the colour of her eyes. But I don't.

Barrack would be a first too. Why doesn't my support lie there. Again, little to do with policy or anything. I think he is young enough to have another crack. He IS still very inexperienced, and I don't see why acting as Hillary's deputy for 8 years would be all that bad.

The points Godin makes are good though.

And I think Barrack is going to win.