We speak in chunks. A single word can connect to a world of shared meaning, or none at all. There is too much for us to understand, so we pick areas and hopefully have overlaps that allow the important bits to spread. Risk is a chunky word. When choosing a path to financial security, risk was the overlap I chose to study. Actuarial Science is a framework for making financial sense of future uncertainty. Primarily through statistical and business understanding of the past using large data sets. It takes advantage of the law of large numbers. There are different forms of uncertainty and risk. For most people, risk normally just means something going wrong. The study of risk goes wider than that. Looking at complexity, ambiguity, and the randomness of the world, and trying to find within that, “is there anything that we can rely on?”. When you look at individual instances of something, life can feel like a spin of the coin or roll of the dice. But if they are fair, there are 6 sides of a dice and 2 sides of a coin. Actuarial Science is partly the study of, and attempt to weather the storms of, “the underlying” rather than the specific result. A consideration for the variety of outcomes that is a form of “there, but for the grace of God, go I”.
Monday, May 24, 2021
Future Uncertainty
Thursday, March 25, 2021
Rippling Consequences
Westworld explores how others might have a better understanding of you than yourself. The chance, if we aren’t paying attention, that other people can see what we can’t see if they are detached and observant. In “Sapiens” & “Homo Deus”, Yuval Harari questions how willing we will be to work with artificial intelligence and things that watch us. Virginia Postrel talks about tacit knowledge in “The Future and Its Enemies”. Stuff we understand without knowing we understand. The driving force behind Adam Smith’s invisible hand. You don't need central decision-makers making complex decisions. You want to drive choice down to where the knowledge lies. We don't necessarily understand ourselves, but we are still the best place to make our decisions. Attention doesn’t scale. Someone understanding us better than we understand ourselves relies on deep listening and care. Local markets with ultra-local decision-making empowers people to make decisions. Information feeds up through the paths that people choose. Through the impact of their actions. Rippling consequences of meaning creation. It doesn't matter if we don't understand this in watered-down averages and stereotypes. It does matter to the intimate relationships that wrestle with understanding.
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Adapt
Investment Analysts build models of businesses to help
understand complexity. The point of the model is not to be correct or not. You
know in advance that you cannot have an accurate map of the future.
Nature does not subscribe to the simple cause and effect story
that we use to try control the world. The point of any of the models in our
toolbox is simply to help us make sense of things in a human way. To add a
story. To add meaning. Like other tools we have made up – countries, words, money,
political parties, ideologies, agreements. They sit on top of reality to
process our controlled hallucination.
Personal Financial Plans are similar. They are not fixed in stone. They are not correct or wrong. They are an ongoing conversation. The only thing you can truly plan for is things not going according to plan. A good plan starts with a picture of where you are. Then builds towards capacity to adapt, adjust, and accommodate. As you change. As you live. As you add meaning.
Friday, November 06, 2020
Creating a Why
Money and words are a form of communication. A way to hear stories. You can reflect on and learn through other people’s stories. Your reflection will change as you change. Part of my story is Apartheid in South Africa. I cannot let go of History. I refuse to let go of History. Because it is such an important part of understanding. We carry all this knowledge with us. Some written, some aural, some in the way we dance, the way we make our art, the way we build community. Part of being human is this beautiful, deep, painful, glorious, connection to everything. The future, the past, and other people’s now. That source of understanding gives us a powerful view of the why of why we make our decisions. I believe that life does not have meaning. We give it meaning. We create meaning. Books like Victor Frankl’s “Man’s Search for Meaning” and David Duncan’s “The River Why”. See what your values are. See what is important to you. Then create a bolder life.
Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Creating Meaning
Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Push and Pull
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Profitability and Creativity
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
Soul
Sunday, July 09, 2017
Pointless
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Building Buffers
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
Essentialists
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
The Perfect Game
Friday, November 27, 2015
More Than Everything
Monday, October 26, 2015
Escape Hatch Problem
Friday, October 23, 2015
Transitioning Potential (with Malcolm)
Malcolm:
Reconnecting to the community beyond the company is not as easy as it often appears and many people go into retirement believing that a "permanent vacation" is just what they need. After a period of enjoyable relaxation there is often an awareness that the workplace provided for a lot of things other than just a paycheck. Status, social interaction and mental stimulation are just a few, and these need to be replaced as the retiree reconnects with the community outside the workplace. When they don't replace these or find a place in the community where significant and meaning can be found, there is often trauma and disappointment.
Trev:
I have heard of a few useful techniques and ideas. In Denmark, they have 'Communal Homes' with a variety of families sharing facilities while maintaining sufficient private space. Older generations can help with homework or provide sage advice. In the Netherlands, there are students being offered cheap accommodation in retirement homes. A quiet, clean, affordable place to live and study. They play chess with, read to, and generally become friends of those living there. Social Media can also help! If youngsters can be patient enough to help. As you say, it is important to find ways that all people's 'status, social interaction and mental stimulation' doesn't come solely from work, or the rug can be pulled.
Malcolm:
We could say that it is not so much the idea of retirement that should be retired, but rather the idea that the idea that retirement means "doing nothing after a lifetime of being busy". It is the prospect of doing nothing and therefore being nothing, not of any use to society, that creates the psychological trauma. If the concept of retirement is seen as a transition from doing a job, or having a career, that you perhaps did not choose in the first place (because of life circumstances), then retirement becomes the time to get in touch with what motivates you. To make some new choices that are meaningful and significant. Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot makes this very clear in her book "The Third Chapter", and highlights the possibilities for learning, involvement and growth. As humans strive to raise their level of consciousness and contribute to the well-being of the world, the contribution of the "retirees" could be of great value.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Thin Slicing
Monday, October 05, 2015
What is the it? (with Meg)
Sunday, August 02, 2015
Black One
Friday, July 03, 2015
Time to Retire (Malcolm Black)
Time to Retire
by Malcolm Black
And when the day to retire comes and we do not have a great pension and very little money saved we may lament and gnash our teeth. We may think we cannot go and do the things our hearts desire as we still need to earn a living and could feel cheated.
This may in fact be a blessing in disguise, as we will need to keep ourselves on the go, requiring mental and physical stimulation from an ongoing purpose and sense of meaning. What will help to add to a little sparkle and pleasure to our lives is if we focus more and more on what turns us on and fills us with enthusiasm. This is the time, if we have not done it already, to steer our work and play towards the things we are most passionate about. It is a time to expand beyond the mundane, focus on the joys of now, and just be focused on the next step.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Simon, the Mbira Player (by Bruce Du Bourg)
In writing a blog about several topics in which I admit to being a complete beginner, I am going to have to rely heavily on the people I am writing for who cumulatively know most of what I am likely to learn already. I would love it if some of you found the time to write a guest post on the subject of happiness or learning. The framework I use for thinking about these things is what I call the '5 + 2 points' which includes proper (1) exercise, (2) breathing, (3) diet, (4) relaxation, (5) positive thinking & meditation, (+1) relationships, (+2) flow. Naturally if you would like to write about something that you think I have missed, I would love to include that too. If you are up to doing something more practical, it would be awesome if you did a 100 hour project and I am happy to do the writing based on our chats if that is how you roll. Email me at trevorjohnblack@gmail.com