Showing posts with label Real Return. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Return. Show all posts

Monday, March 09, 2020

Doing the Work


Personally, I don’t like the idea of investment as an abstract thing. Simplifying “Asset Classes” and treating them with characteristics that are assumed to be essential. Instead of asking what a Company needs money for, or what a Government is going to do with the money, Corporate and Government Bonds simply become a habit. Blind lending. People try guess “Risk On” and “Risk Off” to swap between being Business Owners and Holding Cash as a risk management tool. I have never met someone who has a long-term record of return outperformance through that sort of timing. I know lots of people who have suffered by panic selling, then buying after prices rise, then selling again when they fall. If you think of investments as real jobs, you see the silliness. Imagine quitting your job and then waiting till things settle till you return. Or imagine turning up each day and doing the work. It’s the work that gets done that determines the long-term return. Real assets doing real things.




Friday, February 21, 2020

Jam Factory


A focus on Real Return means looking through the noise. The default disclaimer for most investments is “past performance is no guarantee of future results”. Price is not Value, so regularly there will be things that increase in Price (even for extended periods) that make things appear like they are investments. I like to think of investments as Jam Factories. People want Jam at a price that attracts Capital Investment. Capital is invested. A Factory is built. Jam is made. Jam is sold. There is money left over to increase the size of the Factory. More Jam is made. 20 years later, much more Jam is made. The Factory is much bigger. The Dividends being paid are much higher. That, is an investment. If exactly the same thing is worth more, that is just a change in Price. Money is abstract. It allows smoke and mirrors through the story of cash, earnings, and dividends. You need to look through the show and see the Jam Factory. Real Return is created by adding value consistently for an extended period of time. Real Return is created by building something that wasn’t there, or solving real problems.