Personally, I don’t like the idea of investment as an abstract thing. Simplifying
“Asset Classes” and treating them with characteristics that are assumed to be essential.
Instead of asking what a Company needs money for, or what a Government is going
to do with the money, Corporate and Government Bonds simply become a habit.
Blind lending. People try guess “Risk On” and “Risk Off” to swap between being
Business Owners and Holding Cash as a risk management tool. I have never met
someone who has a long-term record of return outperformance through that sort
of timing. I know lots of people who have suffered by panic selling, then
buying after prices rise, then selling again when they fall. If you think of
investments as real jobs, you see the silliness. Imagine quitting your job and
then waiting till things settle till you return. Or imagine turning up each day
and doing the work. It’s the work that gets done that determines the long-term
return. Real assets doing real things.
Showing posts with label Real Return. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Return. Show all posts
Monday, March 09, 2020
Doing the Work
Labels:
Fundamental Investing,
Real Return,
Risk,
Work
Friday, February 21, 2020
Jam Factory
A
focus on Real Return means looking through the noise. The default disclaimer
for most investments is “past performance is no guarantee of future results”. Price
is not Value, so regularly there will be things that increase in Price (even
for extended periods) that make things appear like they are investments. I like
to think of investments as Jam Factories. People want Jam at a price that attracts
Capital Investment. Capital is invested. A Factory is built. Jam is made. Jam
is sold. There is money left over to increase the size of the Factory. More Jam
is made. 20 years later, much more Jam is made. The Factory is much bigger. The
Dividends being paid are much higher. That, is an investment. If exactly the
same thing is worth more, that is just a change in Price. Money is abstract. It
allows smoke and mirrors through the story of cash, earnings, and dividends.
You need to look through the show and see the Jam Factory. Real Return is
created by adding value consistently for an extended period of time. Real Return
is created by building something that wasn’t there, or solving real problems.
Labels:
Capitalism,
Engine,
Fundamental Investing,
Important Problems,
Real Return,
Reality,
Sustainability,
Sustainable Growth
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