Saturday, March 08, 2014

Freedom to Explore

I find the interaction between rational and emotional thought fascinating. I have long pushed myself towards trying to think more rationally. As an investment professional, it is the common goal to step above emotions and be able to 'think clearly', benefiting from the tendency of others to over and under-react. Nothing should be based on gut instinct. Every decision based on cold hard research and fact.

More and more though, you realise just how complex the world is. How many problems seem unanalysable. How reliant we are on our emotional responses to make decisions where we have incomplete information. Making decisions in a fuzzy world is what gives human decision making its edge - and why computers still have some catching up to do. Is automatic decision making rational or emotional? Some gut feelings are recognised patterns, some are just hopeful leaps. How do you know which is which? How do you know when to slow decision making down, and when to trust in the impressive ability of almost magical muscle memory.

What also amazes me is the progress we make despite even Nobel winning specialists being in strong disagreement. A great example is Shiller and Fama sharing an Economics Nobel despite having very contradictory theories.

There is a lot we don't understand. There is a lot we can't  understand. Even about how we understand. But despite this we move forward. Perhaps the trick is just making sure you have a safety net, and room for error, then being brave. Like a kid with a Mom to run back to but freedom to explore.

Exciting times.

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