Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Illusory Superiority

Incentives matter. We do what we do for various reasons, but normally there is some sort of tangible reward on offer that we value. For this reason, I have always been a fan of the idea of meritocracy. That we should structurally reward excellence, because that will let resources flow to where they will be used best. I am losing my faith in meritocracy. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where we have illusory superiority. Where people with substantial, measurable, defects in their knowledge lack the expertise to recognise that deficit. On the flip-side, as people become aware of just how complicated things are, the confidence they project tends to understate their relative competence. Meritocracy incentivises us to fake it till we make it. It incentivises superficial looks at our areas of ignorance. It places ego front and centre. We aren’t solving joint problems. We are performing. As a fundamental investor, I am bigger believer that in the long term it is what you actually do that matters. That requires real honesty.

A and B are the same colour

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