Go On

An Engine is Capital that earns (on average) more than you spend (on average). The key word there is the one in brackets. To see what is really going on, you have to be able to look through the noise. Often noise is the measure people use for Risk. Summarising uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity into a single number. Then arguing that you need to take risk to make money. You don’t get paid for taking risk unless you are an insurer. You get paid for delivering. For adding value. The real risk is that you are not being creative. Smoothness (always earning/spending the same) can come at the cost of creativity. It can increase risk because you aren’t making mistakes, so you aren’t learning. It can increase the risk by raising false faith that the future will be exactly the same as the past. The big risks (both up and down) are often things that have never happened. That aren’t in the numbers. Tail risks. The foundation of creativity is sustainability. Sustainability requires endurance and resilience. The space and time for average to compound. For what’s really going on, to go on. And on.

Creative Noise