No Pollyanna

I have never seen a long-term track record showing sufficiently compelling evidence of any investor’s ability to time the market. Swapping in (equity) and out (cash/bonds) to predict the ups and downs. Instead, my belief in equity comes from something more fundamental. Equity is a slice of ownership in a business that is doing something creative. With management and staff who can respond dynamically to the challenges presented. Who can make the most of any situation. Solving real problems. Adapt, adjust, accommodate. The growth makes sense to me. The risk management makes sense to me. It’s not a game or crystal ball. I am close to a perma-bull. An optimist who believes it is “time in the market, not timing the market” that makes the difference. But I am not a Pollyanna. You only have to read “When Genius Failed” and “Black Swan” to understand the danger of Tails. Unpredictable, extremes that change everything. 1000 years of mediocre returns will beat several extraordinary lives, with intermittent calamity. Spectacular is over-rated. Sustainability matters. Time matters. Compounding matters.

Pollyanna - Unfailingly Optimistic Outlook