Reversion
to Mean is the reliable default assumption that you should take “this changes
everything” with a pinch of salt. Habits run deep. Normal changes slowly.
Normally. The hardest part of a fast is breaking the fast, gradually returning
to more sustainable behaviour while maintaining the essence of the changes you
took to an extreme. The danger is that big changes lie in the tails. The Fat
Tails. Thinking the world can be neatly summarised into Risk and Return numbers
that drive your decisions is like learning to drive on a farm, or learning to
shoot fish in a barrel. Reversion to Mean works well enough that it is a Hubris
factory. It can build track records of success that turn men into demi-gods.
Till the day you realise the world is too complicated, ambiguous, and random to
control. Till you realise you are not a God, and the best everyone can do is do
their best. Till you personally, revert to mean.
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