We
see based on what we have seen, and what we want to see. Businesses don’t give
a pre-set return or guarantee the Capital will survive. Over the long term,
return is based on adding demonstrable and recognised value. What you do
matters. Over the short term, price is based on what investors have seen, what
they worry about, and what they want to see. Over the very long term, the US Stock
Market (e.g. S&P500) has generated nominal returns of roughly 7% (with several
dramatic falls). Stock pickers normally would want more. How much more? The
more aggressive the model, the less the distant future appears to matter. If
you want stocks that will return 20%, you’ll see stocks that will return 20%. Financial
Modelling raises more questions than answers. Still worth doing, but with a
pinch of salt. At 20%, the maths means anything 5-10 years out becomes a
significantly smaller, almost negligible, part of the decision-making process.
That is dangerous. It’s no surprise prices are all over the place when our eyes
are only on the next 5 years. This too will pass. Ensuring a Future matters.
e.g. Tulip Mania
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