It is tempting to judge decisions based on what did happen. If you accept that the world isn’t on a set path that just has to reveal itself, then what could have happened is just as important.
A bad decision that worked out, is still a bad decision. Especially if that decision-making process gets used repeatedly. Act with what Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Seth Klarman, and other decision-makers call a margin of safety. An acknowledgment that being wrong is a part of engaging with the world meaningfully.
Don’t just assume what you think is going to happen will happen. What if something else happens? Get out of the mindset of thinking you are rewarded for prediction rather than tangible value creation. A track record of building rather than of being right or wrong.
Uncertainty is a part of decision-making. Of course you want to plan, but in a way that realises you have limits and constraints.
A margin of safety is like a buffer when you are streaming a show with slow download speeds. Enough of a buffer means it can be slow, but it doesn’t stop you from watching, because you started with patience.
A margin of safety means your plans don’t get disrupted by whether you are right or wrong, because they allow for change. Where wrong is something you embrace as a part of the learning process, rather than something that ends your creativity.
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