Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Revealed Preference. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Revealed Preference. Sort by date Show all posts

Monday, December 21, 2009

Got time?

I have written before on Inertia and Revealed Preference. The two are potential ways of responding to someone who answers a question as to why they aren't doing something with 'I don't have time'.

A more acceptable answer would likely be either, 'Sorry, there are other things I would rather do with my time' (Revealed Preference), or 'Sorry, I would like to but I am just to lazy or don't have enough motivation' (Inertia).

Revealed Preference in a sense says that what you do is what you want to do, with in the restraints of what you could do. So, if you have been meaning to go to coffee with a certain friend for months and months, and haven't... but could have, since you went to two or three movies, slept in late three Saturdays and just did nothing a lot of the time, Revealed Preference says that you actually just didn't want to go to coffee with the friend.

I think that Revealed Preference only really shows what your preferences are when you have no Inertia, and regularly review or look back on what choices you have made. More than likely you even need help or feedback. I may say that I did not go watch Rodger Federer play in the season ending O2 tournament in London, because I have consciously realised that I only have limited time during the week, and right now that is pretty much taken up between work, travel, yoga, and a few minutes spent learning German, reading or blogging. Sometimes it takes someone to call your bluff and say... I hear that you are really busy, but just make a plan. Make some time! To be honest, I didn't even think of going to the tennis because I was head down. I could have gone, and the occasional kick from a friend helps out.

Taking a few moments to look back and see if what you are doing, could be doing, and want to be doing are all in line is worth while. Sometimes it might be because you actually can't do everything, and you just need to admit that you would rather be doing something else. Sometimes, it is just Inertia, and that is something you can do something about.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

What you do is what you want to do

Stuart reckons `Revealed Preference' shows what you actually do is what you want to do, not what you say you want to do.

I don't really agree... and someone gave me an example. A lot of smokers say they want to quit, but don't. Because right now, they want to smoke. It is far easier to focus on the fact that they enjoy smoking right now, rather than a grand disinterested perspective where they look on a lifetime of smoking and see the negative impact it has a quality and length of life.

I think there are lots of things we genuinely want to do, but don't. Mainly, I think we suffer from inertia. Like convincing yourself to go for a run being hard, but once you are actually running you enjoy it.

Maybe what you actually do is a `revealed preference' for the short term, but I think we have to try take that step back or foward and change those short term actions to what we REALLY want to do.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Time Poverty

'I don't have the time'

This is a dangerous excuse. I have spent a lot of time debating this very common excuse for a variety of things. I have argued for Inertia while my buddy Stu has argued for Revealed Preference. Revealed Preference says that what you actually do says more about what is important to you than what you say you want to do. I have always thought that our short-term impulsive self just lacks the discipline and a catalyst to get cracking, i.e. Inertia. Both reasons aren't very forgiving.

Perhaps the truth is less harsh on those using the excuse. Perhaps we are so busy and have so many conflicting goals that we never really stop to breathe and decide what to do with our time. We end up going with the flow. One step on the path leads to another. We only have so much energy and so when the 'free time' arises, we don't use it as we would like. Not because we can't get started, or because we want to do nothing - but just because we are tired. We have chosen a path, and that unfortunately means other paths get excluded.

Whatever the reason is, I do find it interesting that we don't consider time a bigger part of wealth. A CEO earning bundles of cash is more than likely very time poor. That doesn't get considered when looking at measures of equality.

Saturday, November 08, 2014

Love it? Do it?

I wasn't a big reader growing up. I loved reading, but I wasn't a big reader. That doesn't really make much sense. I have often wondered why. The same can probably be said of sketching. I loved it but don't quite understand why I didn't have reams and reams of sketches from when I was growing up. Outside of active pursuits, I love it when my home is really tidy. A treat while living the bachelor life and working was to get someone to come do my ironing and tidying up a bit once a week. I loved coming home on Thursdays to a spotless home. The theory of 'revealed preference' suggests that I didn't like reading, I didn't actually enjoy sketching, and I prefer the freedom of tossing clothes on the floor and picking a clean cup rather than cleaning a dirty one to the beauty of a clean home.

Something has never felt right about that though. I really believe I am closer to the truth when I say I love reading, sketching and a clean home. Why I am also confused is that in many areas I am actually a very self-disciplined character. Closing in on 100 blog posts in 100 days may be testament to that. Although some friends accuse me of doing things because I love the stats rather than loving the thing. There are lots of pockets of things where I really have absolutely no excuse or desire not to do things that don't get done.

I have largely cracked the reading dilemma. At times I have cracked the sketching dilemma. The tidiness dilemma requires a house guest or visitor to inspire me to action, so is safely in the 'Unsolved Trev Problems' pile. I will touch on the reading issue because I think my barriers were very similar to other peoples.

1. Hard Work - Reading is actually hard work if you read slowly
When we read, we don't read like when we are a kid. We don't sound out each word. Gradually we start to 'chunk'. There was a meme that went around saying that as long as the first and last letters of a word were correct, we could read anything - an ability called Typoglycemia, although in looking this up on Wikipedia it appears that is being challenged. The point is that we do start to recognise rather than read words and groups of words that appear together often. This extends to phrases. Like having to work out fractions or multiply in your head, you can only do it if you do it often. I have an Actuary friend who admits to not being able to add a 10% tip in his head. For those who don't know what an actuary is, it doesn't matter, just know that that is a worry. Back to reading... the more you read, the easier it gets. This is true even if you are older. So part of the answer if you want to read more is... read more.
"I cdn'uolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg: the phaonmneel pweor of the hmuan mnid. Aoccdrnig to a rseearch taem at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Scuh a cdonition is arppoiatrely cllaed Typoglycemia .
"Amzanig huh? Yaeh and you awlyas thguoht slpeling was ipmorantt."

2. Silly Rules - Reading just one book at a time, and always finishing it is a silly rule
I only ever read (past tense) one book at a time. Since I knew I didn't read that often, I always chose books that were supposed to be good. Often this meant books that were harder to read and so I got bored more quickly and put them down. I would get stuck on books. As an example, I read Mark Behr's 'The Smell of Apples' and really enjoyed it despite it being a dark book with a very disturbing twist. I quickly followed that up with another of his books 'Embrace'. This book was much longer and much darker. Slowly I read it less and less, and by definition I read less and less. By definition because another of my silly rules was that I would always finish a book. Many people have this rule and it really makes no sense. We don't have just one friend. We don't watch just one TV series. We don't enjoy just one sport. Why is it that reading gets lumped into this crazy category of one-at-a-time-ness? Different books suit different moods in the same way as friends, TV and sport. If you get bored reading one book, pick up another. When we were asked in our last year of school to discuss 5 books we had read recently, I had to extend back a few years to make up the number much to the disgust of my English teacher. It would take me a further decade till I broke that annual running rate.


3. Technology - The advent of Kindle and Audiobooks, and entertaining the Elephant
When you read a fantastic book, you can fall in love with the actual object of the book. The smell of the paper and all those cliched things people describe about loving reading. By breaking my one book rule, I started reading more and 'recognising words' so reading more easily and so by the time Kindles came I was ready for the clincher. I am a technophile so despite my 'but I the tactile object' feelings also being there, I was keen to try e-books. My first e-book, a Sony, didn't really get out of the gates because it was so difficult to purchase books. My second, a Kindle, was awesome. I have a standing bet with book-loving friends that I persuade to give the Kindle a try. If they read a full book on the Kindle and aren't converted, I will pay for the Kindle. I have a 100% success rate with this bet (so far). That same love of a book gets channeled into the love of the Kindle. You don't move on to another object though. It just gets more and more love. Jeff Bezos, the unusual businessman that he is, knows this and so has openly said Amazon's aim isn't to get ebooks onto the upgrade cycle. There is no reason you can't keep the same Kindle for years and years as it becomes your precious. The 'real books' you buy can then be for art and of a higher quality.


I was slower to adopt audiobooks, and still prefer reading my Kindle when at home. That said, if you really want to make a big dent in your reading pile, there is no better way. It is physically tiring to sit for long periods of time reading. Your elephant gets bored. The same can be said for sitting at an office desk for hours on end. If you really want to concentrate, you have to give your elephant something to do. Audiobooks can let you go for a long walk while the narrator does the hard work and your elephant is content. I have found myself able to get through some really tough books, the kind where you read three pages and your head is spinning, by walking.

So just doing it till it gets easier, breaking some silly rules, and technology have unleashed my love of reading. That I didn't read wasn't a revealed preference. 

Onto solving some of my other weird dilemmas.



Sunday, April 27, 2008

Heroes

A good friend just recommended Heroes and Californication to me. Both TV series. I try not watching a lot of TV... because if I followed Stuart's `Revealed Preference' Theory, I would just be watching TV all the time.

The various series that have been coming out have been of a really high quality in my opinion. I actually prefer them to movies. For years I have been a Smallville fan, and when `Superman Returns' came out, I was actually very disappointed. I think it was because I was comparing the two. Like comparing books to movies, that is pretty much a pointless exercise.

Series have the ability to develop characters that a movie can't do in just 90 minutes. Some movies do it, but it is still an impression. The good ones make a peircing impression that makes you feel like you know the characters. With series, they can do it over time.

Anyway, it seems I am now hooked on two more series... Heroes and Californication are very very cool. Yup, I know, Heroes is old... but I ration myself.

My favourites are Prison Break, Greys, Rome, Smallville and Dexter.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Inertia

Here are a few things I would like to do or do more of but don't.

1) floss my teeth every night.
2) wash dishes after every meal.
3) eat fruit.
4) stretch.
5) read.
6) write.
7) call family members.
8) write emails/call friends that I can't get to see.
9) paint.
10) sketch.

Why don't I? I don't buy the idea of revealed preference. I don't not do those things because I don't want to... or because they necessarily take a huge effort. I am also not a lazy person by nature... but there are things I just don't do, even if the desire is there.

I think it is because we have a natural inertia. It is the people who are able to get over that inertia that manage to do the most.

But it is remarkably difficult to do.

I am feeling more and more convinced that we should however avoid the excuse... `I just didn't have the time'. It is a bit of a cliche that might end me up (not for the first time) on Stuart list of things that people say that should result in a death penalty, but... it is amazing how the busiest people always seem to be able to fit things in.

I reckon, not matter how busy you are, you always have 5 minutes. And it is amazing what you can do in 5 minutes.

Read a blogpost?
Send an email to a friend?
Call someone just to say hello?
Allow someone to bounce an idea off you?

No matter, how busy you are... I reckon you have 5 minutes. BUT, I don't think this means you don't want to do the thing that takes 5 minutes... I think we get beaten by inertia.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Idea Exchange

Mr Torr asks in the comments section of my previous post whether I had listened to his podcasts that he gave me yet. The answer is no, not yet.

In my guilt, I started one... saw that it was 70 minutes long, listened to 10 minutes and stopped it. Not because it was not interesting. The first one I started listening to is about the history of slavery and how ubiquitous it is.

But why is it that pod casts don't inspire me with the same sense of excitement that I get with all the other forms of `idea virus' going around?

Seth Godin believes that podcasts are a fantastic way of reaching a core, target, interested audience. Once you listen to a podcast from someone and really enjoy it, you are likely to listen to their next one and so on. I am sure I will get hooked once I start listening to the ones I have been given.

Why Godin argues that they are not as good a way as blogs to spread ideas is peoples natural desire to search rapidly through things looking for stuff that they are interested in. This is one of the advantages of the web where you needn't stay on a site for more than a few seconds to scan it and see if something captures your interest. You can't just scan a podcast.

From the side of the person wanting to spread the idea, a podcast is also a less attractive idea. Do you script it, then there is the whole `performance anxiety'. It seems with blogging, it is much easier to sit down and just let an idea come out in a few minutes.

That being said, that is why some people don't like blogging, because they feel people just splurge on the screen and don't necessarily give the composition much thought.

That being said... most of you will have probably seen through my thinly veiled attempt to weazle out of the guilt of not actually having listened to the podcasts yet.

And since I have ruled out the excuses of revealed preference and `I didn't have time'... I guess all I am left with is hanging my head and saying...

I'll get to it. Carry on pestering me please.

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Craft the Mundane

Why don't I floss? I know I should and it really doesn't take that much time. Every time I sit in the oral hygienists chair I feel like a naughty schoolboy as I wait for the question as to whether I have sorted myself out. Sometimes it inspires a few days in advance of diligence. I used to wear contact lenses before I got my eyes zapped. I can remember the optician telling me to be diligent about cleaning the lenses before and after going in my eyes. He said five seconds was enough. Turns out five seconds is too much for a morning routine that is exactly that - a task.

Cooking. Cleaning. Admin. Anything that feels like it just needs to get done sucks energy out of you. The Yogis have a term for this feeling - Tamas. A heaviness or lethargy where you just can't be asked. It is that feeling when you have eaten something heavy. Sometimes we don't do things because it is hard to start (Inertia) and sometimes we don't do things because in reality we want something different from what we say we want (Revealed Preference). Sometimes we don't do things just because they slip our mind (Order v Spice). Other times, it might be something we want to do, can prioritise, and can probably start, but we just don't really feel up to. We have run out of energy.

It may be because you aren't getting enough exercise, sleep or good food, but I suspect the source has to do with time poverty and space. Someone asked me last night what I had learnt about happiness from my first six months of daily blogging and full time thinking on the subject. It is not my aim to come up with a 10 point plan to happiness, or a magic bullet. I think that happiness is something you practise rather than something you attain. Having said that, pushed to identify the most powerful thing to improve the quality of people's lives, it would be to ensure that there is some space. This assumes material needs are being met or close to being met, but as Maya Angelou said, 'We need much less than we think we need'. 


When you have space, you can enjoy things for their own sake rather than just trying to get them done. You can cook because cooking is fun rather than because you are hungry. You can make an event out of it. You can craft your morning routine so that music you like is playing, a breakfast you enjoy awaits, and even the flossing becomes an unrushed act of pleasure. This is a theory of course. I haven't reached that state where I look forward to making my bed or working my way through the mail shortly after it comes in.

It is an interesting question though. How can you take the mundane and craft it to be something you enjoy? First you need space.


Thursday, September 16, 2021

Soaking Deep

We don’t necessarily have to understand our engagement with the world. Yoga talks of three states of consciousness. The three semi-circles you see in the Om symbol. 

The knowledge that is going on in our heads. The embodied knowledge that has soaked so deep, that it is part of our behaviours and habits (which we may or may not even be aware of). The free-flowing knowledge that is in our dream state... our state of processing and connecting and imagining. Our hallucinating walk around the way we experience the world. Where symbols and moments blur. 

Revealed preference is when the combination of our three states leads us to act in a way that may be different from what we say we want. You might say you like little local coffee shops that are different. Then buy your fix at Starbucks. You might say you like independent bookstores. Then buy your books online. 

As creatures, our behaviours are not always consistent with what we say we want. This opens us to manipulation if the way things are framed can change our decisions. The same information with a different story can lead us down a different path. This raises the importance of being able to pause, step back, and reflect on the choices we are making. 

Actions have consequences. Consequences compound. Connecting to each other and soaking deep into future options.

Linked Moments

Fundamental investing and a focus on value creation are concerned with long-term compounding. How moments are linked to each other. Sustainable actions with intentional consequences. 

Price exists here and now. It moves in rapid response to supply and demand. A higher price attracts more people and resources to meet that demand. A higher price makes people who want that problem solved consider alternatives. Our decisions are all relative. 

We have a limited basket to fill, and very different decisions to make. Price averages out our immediate decision making. We do not all pay what something is worth to us. We pay the same. Some get a good deal. Some think it is fair. Some will feel they need to explore options, or uncomfortable but still pay. Others will walk away. 

That process communicates information about where resources “need” to go. A surface level information flow that does not have knowledge of all the behind-the-scenes complexity. Adam Smith’s invisible hand pulling on our tacit knowledge. The stuff we understand, or don’t understand, about our own worlds. That gets expressed through how we engage and what decisions we make. Revealed preference.

How are things connected?


Sunday, June 22, 2008

I don't have time

I think modern technology scares a lot of people. Things like Facebook are great, but they do take up time. So does email and so does having a cell phone.

Being involved takes time. Maintaining relationships takes time. Work takes time. So does reading, eating, sleeping, driving to and from places, and doing things like shopping, housework and admin.

And yet... I still treat the excuse, `I don't have time' with a little skepticism. It is probably one of the things I hear most often given as a reason. I don't buy it. Of course, there are exceptions...

BUT

I think of myself as a fairly efficient person who does quite a lot. Yet, I waste a lot of time. I spend a lot of time doing nothing. Inertia I call it, Stuart calls it revealed preference.

If I took all the time I spent doing nothing, and how much pleasure I gained from that (doing nothing is extremely pleasurable sometimes)... I am sure I would be much happier having done something else with that time.

I think there are a few reasons we don't do stuff:

1) The process seems excessively daunting
2) We can't see the benefit before hand
3) Lack of knowledge (we think it is harder than it is)
4) Laziness
5) Lack of inspiration
6) You feel you will be judged harshly.

I don't think we are very rational in our deciding what we want to do with our time because we don't tend to have a big picture view of things.

When I suggest to people they should start a blog, the common response is `I don't have time'. The reason I don't buy it, is because I know how much time it takes to keep a blog. Very little. I probably spend less than 30 minutes a day reading blogs, and then writing in mine. And I post most days. Someone could write once a week and I just don't buy they don't have 30 minutes.

So... I don't think time is the reason. I think the real reason is a combo of fear of judgement (6) and being daunted (1).

If the one thing that new technology is able to instill in young kids is not being scared of failure, and trying things... well I look forward to seeing the amazing creativity that will come out of that.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Seth's London Talk

I was lucky enough to listen to Seth Godin talk live today. It reminded me just how irreplaceable real interaction is. You can read someones blog, read their books, belong to their online social 'tribe'... but a human presence is something that can't be replaced. So, although I get accused of being a 'Yay Internet' person... I don't believe that online interaction replaces relationships, it enhances them and in my opinion relationships will always provide the juice.

He brought up many ideas. He spoke about different industries such as the newspaper, music and advertising industries and how they were having to reinvent themselves. In truth, it is a whole new beginning. Your model can't be based on physical barriers to entry. Anything that can be reproduced will be, and cheaply, and soon. If you were lucky enough to be in a university whose product was limited access to high quality education... your days are gone. Education is free. If you are a thoughtful academic who is prepared to tutor and give quality feedback, your days are just beginning.

He spoke about leadership.
'It's not about being the boss, its about being the leader'
Here's the thing. In a company, in your company, the top management choose the next level of management. Someone has to appoint you as a boss. You have to be assigned people to manage. No one chooses leaders other than those who follow them. And it isn't even following, it is being influenced by them. And it isn't really being influence by them, it is being inspired. So a leader is someone who helps other people achieve things that are important to them, not someone who gives someone else tasks. So the only person who makes someone a leader is themselves.

Another interesting thing he spoke about was in response to a question about how he finds the time to respond to everyone who emails him and posts every day. His answer was that it is about making the hard choices. He doesn't have a staff. He doesn't go to meetings. He doesn't watch TV. That gives him about 6 more hours a day than the average person, and he uses that to respond to emails. If he responds to 200 a day, 1000 a week, 4000 a month, 50000 a year... that is 50000 person, relevant and anticipated interactions that he has not paid for. That means he understands his 'tribe'(clients) and he doesn't spend a cent on traditional advertising.

Making the tough choices is what I found interesting. Stuart's 'Revealed Preference'. My 'Inertia'. Perhaps it is just a case of actually sitting down, figuring out what matters, cutting things out and focusing on what matters to you.

Not everyone needs to have a blog. I was wrong. But... I would like to know what it is you would rather do? And I would like to know that you do that.

Another interesting comment he made was that he didn't like the title of his book, 'All marketers are liars'. Yes, it did capture interest... but lots of people didn't read the book and so didn't know what the message of his book really was. His marketing is about candor, authenticity, and meeting real needs in a personal and relevant way. His marketing is a new marketing divorced from mass media interruption and short term forced sales. It will be interesting to see if people who distrust marketing will be open enough to see that marketing has changed along with the new age of transparency and idea exchange.

The session was very interactive. People came loaded with questions and passionate to learn. What a great mix.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Creating Meaning


How you define words matters. What do you mean? Meaning is revealed over time through what we pay attention to, and what relevance we attach. Through the meaning we create. The actions we take. I am a Commitmentphobe, or a Commitmentphile depending on how you define commitment. I believe in Broad Framing. That you need to pause, step back, and reflect on decisions in context. That everything is connected. I love dogs. I don’t own a dog. A dog is a commitment. Affecting holiday choices, times you wake up, cleanliness of the home, and various other things. They also give great cuddles, and I love cuddles. My preference for commitment is to things that I can keep the commitment to. Not in the moment. Not outside of my context. I believe in the long term. That small moments compound. Fully committed to this moment. But also, in how it is connected to the next. And the next. Choosing what we pay attention to. Remembering the connections. Building meaning over time. That’s what I mean by commitment.


Little Me and my Milligan