The Gambler’s Fallacy stems from our obsession with patterns. Our desire to attribute to the world cause and effect, in our attempt to control it. When something has no memory, history is irrelevant. People have memory. It colours our world and is the basis of our personal hallucination that is our interpretation of reality. Real Reality regularly has no memory. Whatever happened before has no bearing on what happens next. The Gambler will believe that there is more likelihood of a six because there hasn’t been a six for a while. The Fair Dice doesn’t care. The probability is the same. There is something empowering about not trying to make sense of everything. About not attributing cause and effect to everything. Of accepting that every decision is complicated and has advantages and disadvantages. Every decision has unintended consequences. The only thing that is all-knowing, all-powerful, and ever-present is Silence. That moment you pause to breathe.
50-50 and the Law of Large Numbers