The
Gambler’s Fallacy stems from our obsession with patterns. Our desire to
attribute to the world cause and effect, in our attempt to control it. When
something has no memory, history is irrelevant. People have memory. It colours
our world and is the basis of our personal hallucination that is our
interpretation of reality. Real Reality regularly has no memory. Whatever
happened before has no bearing on what happens next. The Gambler will believe
that there is more likelihood of a six because there hasn’t been a six for a
while. The Fair Dice doesn’t care. The probability is the same. There is something
empowering about not trying to make sense of everything. About not attributing
cause and effect to everything. Of accepting that every decision is complicated
and has advantages and disadvantages. Every decision has unintended consequences.
The only thing that is all-knowing, all-powerful, and ever-present is Silence. That
moment you pause to breathe.
50-50 and the Law of Large Numbers
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