Thursday, July 30, 2020

Left or Right

Step one is to become aware of the decisions you have the option of making. To get a sense of your left and right. A Galton Board is a demonstration of the law of large numbers. When things can go left or right randomly, most will “regress to mediocrity”. Some will, through luck (good or bad), go to the extremes. Some of those extremes will take the credit or blame for the “merit” of decisions taken by chance. Those extremes will get most of our attention. This is called the “normal Distribution” because it is such a common way that the random noise we deal with plays out. When nature doesn’t know, its answer is to do lots of small things. Three lessons from a Galton Board are (1) take stories of success (and failure) with a pinch of salt, (2) try be aware of your left and right, and (3) reduce the size of your trial and error when you are acting in the dark.

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